Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra continue to lead as the top two candidates for California governor, according to the latest poll released by the California Democratic Party.
The results, released Tuesday, May 19, signaled that voters are continuing to consolidate behind certain candidates in a race that for months was defined by the lack of a clear frontrunner.
The latest poll had Hilton, a political commentator, leading the crowded field of candidates with 22% of overall voter support, followed closely by Becerra, the former U.S. health secretary, at 21%.
Billionaire environmental advocate Tom Steyer, a Democrat, was third, with 15% voter support, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, was fourth with 10%.
Rounding out the field were four Democrats: former Rep. Katie Porter at 7%, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 4%, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 1% each.
The percentage of undecided voters dipped slightly from the last poll, going from 14% to 13%.
With two weeks to go before Election Day, “the race is far from over, especially given the many twists and turns that we have already seen,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said in a call with reporters.
But, he added, the race is in a different place than it was two months ago.
“Some candidates are surging and consolidating. Others are falling behind. And it is clear from our survey results that voters are paying attention to both,” Hicks said.
Among the two Republicans included in the poll, Hilton, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, continued to extend his lead over Bianco, going from a 4 percentage-point lead in the last poll to a 12 percentage-point advantage.
On the Democratic side, Becerra’s lead over Steyer remained at 6 points, the same as two weeks ago.
During the last poll, Hilton and Becerra were tied at 18% voter support. While they remain the top two polling candidates, Hilton, by 1 percentage point, edged out Becerra for first place in the latest poll.
Steyer and Bianco, meanwhile, swapped positions between third and fourth place.
Porter, Mahan and Villaraigosa all lost ground in overall voter support, though they each remained in the same spots as where they placed in CADEM’s last poll.
Hicks said Thursday that although the race isn’t over, a picture was emerging of voter consolidation – both on the Democratic and Republican side.
In the latest poll, 57% of Republicans said they supported Hilton – up from 48% two weeks ago.
During that same period, Becerra increased his support amongst Democratic voters, going from 29% to 35%.
“Becerra currently maintains the broadest coalition of any candidate for governor with 35% of Democrats – a 6-point increase from May 4th – and 19% of independents,” Hicks said.
Becerra saw his standing surge after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race in mid-April amid sexual assault allegations – which the former congressman denies committing.
Becerra continues to be the top-polling Democrat even after last Thursday’s televised debate, where he faced a barrage of attacks from many of the other candidates running against him.
This latest CADEM poll was conducted May 14-16 and reflected responses from 1,200 likely voters. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish, both online and by phone. It has an error margin of 2.83%.
This week’s report marked the fifth and final poll by the California Democratic Party ahead of the June 2 primary election.
Hicks, in early March, first urged low-polling Democrats to drop out of the race so that voters could consolidate around a top-performing candidate rather than risk having Democrats split the vote and getting shut out of the November runoff election.
When his advice was largely ignored, the California Democratic Party then took the unusual step of commissioning a series of polls over the course of roughly two months to gauge where the leading candidates stood with voters.
Hicks has repeatedly said the polls are intended to provide an honest assessment of each candidate’s viability.
Asked by a reporter on Thursday if he thought Democratic candidates who are still polling at the bottom should drop out, Hicks said he did not believe a candidate polling at 1% or 2% would make it to the general election.
But, he added, he did not think it would make much of a difference at this stage if they dropped out.
“Given the consolidation that we’ve seen, particularly with the Becerra campaign, I’m not sure that it necessarily matters,” Hicks said.
“The goal was always to ensure that we get a strong Democrat into the general election,” he continued. “I think we’re moving closer to that. We are not there yet.”
